We have been cogitating on the gross anomaly of our time: Namely, the fact that pre-tax corporate profits of $2.2 trillion (annual rate) posted for Q4 2018 were actually a tad lower than they were 7 years ago in Q1 2012, yet the S&P 500 has gained 125% during the interim.
This bears repeating: During the 80 months between Q1 2012 and Q4 2018 the S&P index rose by 125%, but pre-tax corporate profits of $2.2 trillion (annual rate) did not rise by single dime.
Once upon a time, the stock market reflected the state of the main street economy and the level of business profits. In the present age of Keynesian central banking, not so much.
If you need a reason to be very afraid of the casino, an excellent one is that the world economy is now being run by economic crackpots. We are referring to officials such as New York Fed President, John Williams, US President, Donald Trump, and practically every foreign central banker you care to name—and most especially the …
Larry Kudlow cut loose with a doozy yesterday, suggesting there would never be another interest rate increase in his lifetime. Yet according to the actuarial tables, the 71-year old Kudlow should last another 14 years–unless he’s had some bad news from his heart doctor that he’s not sharing.
The fatal turn in the road toward Keynesian central banking occurred during the early 1990s when Greenspan returned the Fed to strict interest rate pegging and a focus on Economy rather than Money.
Once upon a time monetary policy was about Money—its integrity and the stable purchasing power thereof. Indeed, during his landmark congressional testimony of 1912, J.P. Morgan implied that “policy” was not even a matter of debate when he famously said that:
You would think that by now everyone involved in financial markets would be familiar with Einstein’s famous aphorism, which held that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result.
If you want to know had badly Keynesian central banking has corrupted the financial discourse, just check into the current PC sensation of the week.
Just when you think the Donald’s usefulness in undermining the Wall Street/Washington ruling class has disappeared—often into the maws of Deep Staters like his insidious foreign policy team of Pompeo and Bolton—he takes things into his own hands and lets the brickbats fly.