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Growthless Recovery And The Fed’s Big Fat Wet Noodle
By David Stockman |
It just keeps on getting whackier. We recently remarked about the Austrian 100-year bond going parabolic, but flat-out vertical might now be the better term.
Inside Washington’s Low-Inflation Scam: How The BLS Disappears Housing Inflation
How The BLS Disappears Inflation, 2000-2019 Market-based rent of primary residence (7.9% weight in CPI)……….3.15%/Year BLS manufactured fiction called OER (24.6% weight in CPI)………..2.65%/Year
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Horrific Crimes, Yes. Rising Crime Rates, Absolutely Not
Violent crime overall was at 382.9 per 100,000 during 2017, near a 45 year low. .
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Thanks For The STIMULUS, Mario! European Auto Sales Down 7.9% In June
Sales dropped 7.9% to 1.49 million cars…. France and Spain had declines of more than 8%, while German and U.K. sales were down 4.7% and 4.9% respectively.
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Wall Street To Fed: Hurry Up With That Rate Cut, We’re Dying Up Here!
Loosest Financial Conditions Since 1993
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Gold’s Long-Term Chart: A Thing Of Bullish Beauty
://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=on1k http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2019/07/gold-long-term-chart-a-thing-of-beauty/
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Hey, Jay, Which Lowflation Needs A Rate Cut?
Annualized CPI Since June 2000: Personal Computers=(-9.5%); Durable goods=(-1.0%); Commodities Less Food And Energy=(0.0%); All services less energy=(+2.7%); Tuition, school fees and child care=(+4.6%)
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Would You Like To Slather On Some Negative Yielding Government Bonds With Your Soaring Italian Debt And Shrinking Real GDP?
Italian Government Debt-To-GDP % Italy Constant Price GDP Italian Government 2-Year Yield
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Fed’s Recession Risk Model Erupting….But Probably Nothin’!
recession becomes highly probable. So
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Red Ponzi Swooning—-May’s Industrial Output Growth Weakest In 17 Years
Fixed Asset Investment <!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–><!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–>
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Who Needs Exports When You’ve Got The Donald’s “Beautiful” Tariffs!
As US exports to China plunge back near 9 year lows. <!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–><!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–>
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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Nothing To See….Until There WAS!
Weekly claims, May 2006-November 2007 Weekly claims, December 2007-March 2009
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Probably Nothin’! The Donald Says Trade Is Theft, Anyway
IMF’s Year-Over-Year Change In Direction Of Trade Statistics For Advanced Economies—Worst Since 2008 <!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–><!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–>
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Hey, Trumpite/GOP, Thanks For The Buyback Binge! The Casino Got To Unload On Uncle Sam’s Credit Card
2019 Equity fund redemptions now amount to $116 billion, the worst year since ’08 & ’16: <!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–><!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–>
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Global Central Bank Tapering—Stealth And Actual
BOJ Balance Sheet= $5.1 Trillion or 102.2% of GDP ECB’s Balance Sheet= $5.3 trillion or 40.3% of GDP Fed Balance Sheet= $3.89 trillion or 18.5% of GDP
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Hey, Donald! This Ain’t MAGA
Take Out Transfer Payments From Uncle Sam—And Real Income’s Going South
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$15 Trillion From Thin Air—The Massive Central Bank Fraud On The World Economy
Big Five Combined (billions): Q2 2007………$5,354 Q4 2018……….$20,652 CAGR…….12.5%/Year
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Exactly What GDP Boom?
Real Final Sales of Domestic Product Removes Inventory/Import Aberrations
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Since 1998 Japan’s Nominal GDP Has Flat-Lined Despite Massive BOJ Monetization Of The Public Debt
Japan Nominal GDP, 1998-2018—Up 0.2% Per Annum Percent Of JGBs Owned By The BOJ
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U-Turn In Trucking: Cass Shipment Index Down 4th Consecutive Month
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/u-turn-in-trucking-cass-truck-shipment-index-down-4th-consecutive-month-NWYbuqSUnkmevEtcMCIBcg/
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Once Upon A Time Profits Drove Stocks—Now, Not So Much!
Since Q1 2012: S&P 500 Up 125%; pretax corporate profits up 0.0%
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Uncle Sam’s Debt Keeps Going Parabolic—But It Doesn’t Matter…Until It Does!
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/15/who-bought-the-huge-1-26-trillion-of-new-us-government-debt-over-the-past-12-months/ The
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Treasury Bill Interest Rates Stay Sticky Near the Highs
Short term Treasury Bill interest rates have remained near their highs. That’s despite the Fed announcing a less tight monetary policy, and despite a big reduction in Treasury supply. These are real, actively traded markets, so direct manipulation of phony rates like the Fed Funds rate are less of an issue here. We can see …
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Warning: BLS Doesn’t COUNT Jobs—It Models Them First, Revises Later
Massive Downward Revisions After Great Recession Started
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Ooops! Atlanta Fed Sees Q1 GDP Tumbling To Just 0.2%
……the Atlanta Fed slashed its Q1 GDP Nowcast….. and is now at the lowest recorded level, and just 0.2% away from economic contraction. <!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–><!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–>
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Thanks For The Cheap Money, Fed: December Single Family Starts Back To October 1982!
Single Family House Starts—-October 1982 Redux
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End Of The Ballyhooed Trumpian Boom? Nah, Probably Just Another “Glitch”
Philly Fed Business Index
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Build It And They Will Come……Or Not!
Around 21% of China’s urban housing stands empty, according to one estimate. © Getty Images
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Nah, Probably Nothin’!
……… the biggest drop in the control group since the 9/11 attacks in 2001!…
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The No Inflation Scam: BLS Says New Car Prices Up 0.0% In 20 Years, Actual Dealer Lot Prices Up 20% In 10 Years
BLS Price Index For New Vehicles—–0% Rise In 20 Years Actual USA Transaction Prices: Up 20% In 10 Years
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Just Sayin’
Two Years Before The Dotcom/Tech Crash of April 2000: Two Years Before The Everything Bubble….???..Of January 2019
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Behold, The Year Of C.I. T. A. (Cash Is The Only Alternative)
case for C.I.T.A. (“cash is the alternative”): Chart Courtesy of Charlie Bilello of Pension Partners
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At Least One VC Man Knows How To “Cut” His Losses!
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, center, met with a group of venture capitalists in San Francisco in June 2016. Photo: Bader Al Asaker The kingdom is now the largest single investor for U.S. startups, an unsettling fact for Silicon Valley
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What Boom? Mortgage Applications Hit Lowest Rate Since Sept. 2000
lowest applications since September 2000…
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End To What Austerity? What Planet Does Theresa May Live On?
What planet does Theresa May live on? “A decade after the financial crash, people need to know that the austerity it led to is over and that their hard work has paid off. There must be no return to the uncontrolled borrowing of the past. No undoing all the progress of the last eight years …
View Chart End To What Austerity? What Planet Does Theresa May Live On? Read More »
27 Years After The Soviet Union Perished—Record High Real National Security Spending
Source: Table 4.1, Off
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Insider Stock Sales Near All-Time Highs….Probably Nothin’!
…. at or near record highs,” TrimTabs wrote in a note.
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Hey, Donald, You Were Right The First Time—Syria’s None Of Our Goddamn Business!
Trump 2013 vs Trump 2018 on Syria…
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Mind The Red Ponzi—Total Credit Is Still Shrinking
impulse is still negative and remains at the lowest level it has been in two years.
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Thanks For The Stock Bubble, Fed! The Top 10% Of Households Got 84% Of The Windfall
same people who benefit most from the tax cuts.
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Two Jobs, Less Pay, No MAGA
in August 2008, and the highest all the way back to 1999. There was o
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Mind The Red Ponzi: Industrial Production Growth Is Flatlining, Consumer Spending Gains Are Faltering
Chinese Industrial Production Growth Is Flatlining Consumer Spending Growth Is Faltering, Too
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You Can’t Borrow & Build Your Way To Prosperity—Mind The Red Ponzi’s Sinking Red Line (FAI)
Growth Internals – China (FAI, Industrial Production, & Retail Sales)
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