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November Jobs: No Blowout, No How
By David Stockman |
Here we go again with another “blowout” Jobs Friday report that wasn’t remotely all that. Yes, the November headline print of 266,000 included 86,000 mostly lower paying jobs in health and education, which are mostly funded by the public fisc—plus 45,000 very low-paying jobs in bars, restaurants and hotels and 54,000 jobs in manufacturing that were actually GM strike rebound jobs and were up …
Stand Clear: Headline-Reading Algos At Work!
Surprise!! It turns out that China commenting that it believes/hopes that tariffs will be delayed next week is not enough for anything but headline-reading algos. White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney just injected some reality by noting that next week’s tariff decision will depend on how the talks are going… and that sent stocks …
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Uncle Joe Is A Tax Grabber, Too!
Joe Biden’s proposal to raise roughly $3.2 trillion over 10 years from taxes on US
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Art Basel’s $120,000 Duct-Taped Banana……Probably Nothin’!
A banana duct-taped to a wall is on sale for $120,000 (£91,295) at the Art Basel Miami Beach art fair this week… .
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Soaring Payrolls And Costs: Can You Say Health Care Cartels?
Do you reckon these two charts are connected–soaring costs and ballooning administrative payrolls?
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Red Ponzi Update: Build It Too Much And Eventually Nobody Will Come
2019 Fixed Asset Investment The Lowest On Record
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A Low-Flation Monetary Disease Or Just A Commodity Deflation Cycle?
We seem to have experienced falling oil prices most of the time since 2008. Figure 3. Inflation adjusted weekly average Brent Oil price, based on EIA oil spot prices and
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Algos Sniffing Glue Fumes In The Casino
Average daily trading volume in S&P 500 index SPX, +0.18% stocks over the previous 90 days has fallen toward a 10-year low, declining to 7% of total market capitalization during the three months ended Oct. 19, versus 21% average volume between 2010 and 2013.
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Why Erdogan Is Spooked By Kurdistan
According to Turkstat, the official statistics agencies, the Turkish provinces with the lowest fertility rates all cluster in the north and northwest of the country, where women on average have only 1.5 children. The southeastern provinces show fertility rates ranging between 3.2 and 4.2 children per female.
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Sugar High’s Over, Fake Trumpian Boom Vanishes
Year/Year % Change: Industrial Production And Mfg. Output
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The Great Deal-Maker At Work: Dig A Hole, Partially Refill It, Declare Victory!
Charting the Trade War Soybean imports by China, the world’s biggest buyer, fell to the lowest level in three months in September as Brazilian supplies decline seasonally and before new U.S. purchases start to arrive at the country’s ports.
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Beginning Of The End—The Chart Which Reminds
First comes the yield curve inversion, then comes the steepening, and that’s exactly what happened this week:
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Forget The “Job” Count—It’s The Labor Hours, Stupid!
% Change Over Prior Year, Aggregate Private Hours Worked
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The Red Ponzi And Globally Synchronized……Contraction!
A look below the headline numbers showed that export demand remained weak, with orders sliding for the 16th straight month, an ominous sign for China’s export-heavy economy.
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Right, Donald, There’s No Inflation!
the past 20 years, the employee contribution has increased by 290%.
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100% Of 10-Year Revenue Growth Will Be Consumed By Social Security, Medical Entitlements And Interest
decline substantially. Mos
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Hey, Donald, US Exporters Are Losing So Much They Can’t Stand It!
Five Straight Months Of Export Contraction
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Pure Financial Lunacy—Central Banks Have Destroyed Yield
One of the most ridiculous charts in modern finance. Yields of long-term #Austria bonds in free fall. Austria’s 100y yield now at 0.61%. Keep in mind that Austria defaulted 7 times since 1800 (Austria-Hungary pre-1918). Current debt to GDP ratio >70%.
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Inside Washington’s Low-Inflation Scam: How The BLS Disappears Housing Inflation
How The BLS Disappears Inflation, 2000-2019 Market-based rent of primary residence (7.9% weight in CPI)……….3.15%/Year BLS manufactured fiction called OER (24.6% weight in CPI)………..2.65%/Year
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Horrific Crimes, Yes. Rising Crime Rates, Absolutely Not
Violent crime overall was at 382.9 per 100,000 during 2017, near a 45 year low. .
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Thanks For The STIMULUS, Mario! European Auto Sales Down 7.9% In June
Sales dropped 7.9% to 1.49 million cars…. France and Spain had declines of more than 8%, while German and U.K. sales were down 4.7% and 4.9% respectively.
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Wall Street To Fed: Hurry Up With That Rate Cut, We’re Dying Up Here!
Loosest Financial Conditions Since 1993
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Gold’s Long-Term Chart: A Thing Of Bullish Beauty
://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=on1k http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2019/07/gold-long-term-chart-a-thing-of-beauty/
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Hey, Jay, Which Lowflation Needs A Rate Cut?
Annualized CPI Since June 2000: Personal Computers=(-9.5%); Durable goods=(-1.0%); Commodities Less Food And Energy=(0.0%); All services less energy=(+2.7%); Tuition, school fees and child care=(+4.6%)
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Would You Like To Slather On Some Negative Yielding Government Bonds With Your Soaring Italian Debt And Shrinking Real GDP?
Italian Government Debt-To-GDP % Italy Constant Price GDP Italian Government 2-Year Yield
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Fed’s Recession Risk Model Erupting….But Probably Nothin’!
recession becomes highly probable. So
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Red Ponzi Swooning—-May’s Industrial Output Growth Weakest In 17 Years
Fixed Asset Investment <!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–><!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–>
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Who Needs Exports When You’ve Got The Donald’s “Beautiful” Tariffs!
As US exports to China plunge back near 9 year lows. <!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–><!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–>
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Weekly Unemployment Claims: Nothing To See….Until There WAS!
Weekly claims, May 2006-November 2007 Weekly claims, December 2007-March 2009
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Probably Nothin’! The Donald Says Trade Is Theft, Anyway
IMF’s Year-Over-Year Change In Direction Of Trade Statistics For Advanced Economies—Worst Since 2008 <!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–><!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–>
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Hey, Trumpite/GOP, Thanks For The Buyback Binge! The Casino Got To Unload On Uncle Sam’s Credit Card
2019 Equity fund redemptions now amount to $116 billion, the worst year since ’08 & ’16: <!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–><!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–>
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Global Central Bank Tapering—Stealth And Actual
BOJ Balance Sheet= $5.1 Trillion or 102.2% of GDP ECB’s Balance Sheet= $5.3 trillion or 40.3% of GDP Fed Balance Sheet= $3.89 trillion or 18.5% of GDP
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Hey, Donald! This Ain’t MAGA
Take Out Transfer Payments From Uncle Sam—And Real Income’s Going South
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$15 Trillion From Thin Air—The Massive Central Bank Fraud On The World Economy
Big Five Combined (billions): Q2 2007………$5,354 Q4 2018……….$20,652 CAGR…….12.5%/Year
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Exactly What GDP Boom?
Real Final Sales of Domestic Product Removes Inventory/Import Aberrations
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Since 1998 Japan’s Nominal GDP Has Flat-Lined Despite Massive BOJ Monetization Of The Public Debt
Japan Nominal GDP, 1998-2018—Up 0.2% Per Annum Percent Of JGBs Owned By The BOJ
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U-Turn In Trucking: Cass Shipment Index Down 4th Consecutive Month
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/u-turn-in-trucking-cass-truck-shipment-index-down-4th-consecutive-month-NWYbuqSUnkmevEtcMCIBcg/
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Once Upon A Time Profits Drove Stocks—Now, Not So Much!
Since Q1 2012: S&P 500 Up 125%; pretax corporate profits up 0.0%
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Uncle Sam’s Debt Keeps Going Parabolic—But It Doesn’t Matter…Until It Does!
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/04/15/who-bought-the-huge-1-26-trillion-of-new-us-government-debt-over-the-past-12-months/ The
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Treasury Bill Interest Rates Stay Sticky Near the Highs
Short term Treasury Bill interest rates have remained near their highs. That’s despite the Fed announcing a less tight monetary policy, and despite a big reduction in Treasury supply. These are real, actively traded markets, so direct manipulation of phony rates like the Fed Funds rate are less of an issue here. We can see …
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Warning: BLS Doesn’t COUNT Jobs—It Models Them First, Revises Later
Massive Downward Revisions After Great Recession Started
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Ooops! Atlanta Fed Sees Q1 GDP Tumbling To Just 0.2%
……the Atlanta Fed slashed its Q1 GDP Nowcast….. and is now at the lowest recorded level, and just 0.2% away from economic contraction. <!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–><!– [if IE 9]>< ![endif]–>
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Thanks For The Cheap Money, Fed: December Single Family Starts Back To October 1982!
Single Family House Starts—-October 1982 Redux
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End Of The Ballyhooed Trumpian Boom? Nah, Probably Just Another “Glitch”
Philly Fed Business Index
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Build It And They Will Come……Or Not!
Around 21% of China’s urban housing stands empty, according to one estimate. © Getty Images
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Nah, Probably Nothin’!
……… the biggest drop in the control group since the 9/11 attacks in 2001!…
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The No Inflation Scam: BLS Says New Car Prices Up 0.0% In 20 Years, Actual Dealer Lot Prices Up 20% In 10 Years
BLS Price Index For New Vehicles—–0% Rise In 20 Years Actual USA Transaction Prices: Up 20% In 10 Years
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Just Sayin’
Two Years Before The Dotcom/Tech Crash of April 2000: Two Years Before The Everything Bubble….???..Of January 2019
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Behold, The Year Of C.I. T. A. (Cash Is The Only Alternative)
case for C.I.T.A. (“cash is the alternative”): Chart Courtesy of Charlie Bilello of Pension Partners
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At Least One VC Man Knows How To “Cut” His Losses!
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, center, met with a group of venture capitalists in San Francisco in June 2016. Photo: Bader Al Asaker The kingdom is now the largest single investor for U.S. startups, an unsettling fact for Silicon Valley
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What Boom? Mortgage Applications Hit Lowest Rate Since Sept. 2000
lowest applications since September 2000…
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End To What Austerity? What Planet Does Theresa May Live On?
What planet does Theresa May live on? “A decade after the financial crash, people need to know that the austerity it led to is over and that their hard work has paid off. There must be no return to the uncontrolled borrowing of the past. No undoing all the progress of the last eight years …
View Chart End To What Austerity? What Planet Does Theresa May Live On? Read More »
27 Years After The Soviet Union Perished—Record High Real National Security Spending
Source: Table 4.1, Off
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Insider Stock Sales Near All-Time Highs….Probably Nothin’!
…. at or near record highs,” TrimTabs wrote in a note.
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Hey, Donald, You Were Right The First Time—Syria’s None Of Our Goddamn Business!
Trump 2013 vs Trump 2018 on Syria…
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Mind The Red Ponzi—Total Credit Is Still Shrinking
impulse is still negative and remains at the lowest level it has been in two years.
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Thanks For The Stock Bubble, Fed! The Top 10% Of Households Got 84% Of The Windfall
same people who benefit most from the tax cuts.
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Two Jobs, Less Pay, No MAGA
in August 2008, and the highest all the way back to 1999. There was o
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Mind The Red Ponzi: Industrial Production Growth Is Flatlining, Consumer Spending Gains Are Faltering
Chinese Industrial Production Growth Is Flatlining Consumer Spending Growth Is Faltering, Too
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You Can’t Borrow & Build Your Way To Prosperity—Mind The Red Ponzi’s Sinking Red Line (FAI)
Growth Internals – China (FAI, Industrial Production, & Retail Sales)
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