Why The Donald Will Join The Ranks Of The One-Termers, Part 1

To paraphrase an old adage, be careful what you boast about! We are referring, of course, to the Donald’s delusional view that we are experiencing the Greatest Economy Ever and that its almost entirely his doing—including last September’s lowest in 50 years US unemployment rate:

Unemployment Rate just dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in more that 50 years. Is that an impeachable event for your President?

Funny thing is that last time the U-3 unemployment rate hit 3.5% was December 1969. The 1970 recession started the next month!


The essence of the matter is the business cycle, which presidents inherit but do not really shape, and the point in the cycle that any particular POTUS takes up temporary residence.

As is crystal clear in the chart below, they cycle is essentially repetitive and it doesn’t matter who is president: The U-3 unemployment rate is high during the first months of a recovery at 8% or above during recent cycles, and, it grinds its way down toward the 5%-4% range or lower in the last months before the next recession.



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