The Other Raiding Party

While the FBI was raiding the offices of Trump’s lawyer yesterday afternoon, the CBO published a blockbuster report evidencing the Donald’s own raiding party. To wit, in roughly 90 days of fiscal madness between December and February, Trump and his GOP allies piled $459 billion onto next year’s (FY 2019) deficit.

That eruption of red ink consisted of $285 billion for the tax bill and $174 billion of spending add-ons for defense ($56 billion), domestic programs ($105 billion) and additional debt service ($13 billion). For FY 2019 alone the added debt amounted to 2.3% of GDP, and turned an awful fiscal situation into an outright disaster.

Indeed, the real “watershed moment” yesterday was not that Mueller went after the keeper of Trump’s legal skeletons, but that CBO let the real monsters out of the fiscal closet, translating Trump-O-Nomics into the scariest budget numbers ever seen.

Namely, a public debt that reaches $33.85 trillion (130% of GDP) by 2028 and that’s not our projection; it’s right there on p.87 of the CBO’s official report.

Moreover, that’s the good news part of the report. But to believe that the public debt is only heading for 130% of GDP during the next 10 years, you have to believe in Rosy Scenario economics and be OK with the crooked book-keeping forced on CBO by our estimable legislators.

As we show below, grab some sober economics and honest fiscal book-keeping—and the public debt number 10-years out is actually $40 trillion and 150% of GDP. And there’s no conceivable way to dig out from under it because the tsunami of baby-boom retirements and the associated Welfare State fiscal costs are insuperable.

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