Not MAGA—It’s The Business Cycle, Stupid!

By the lights of the Donald, Friday was an all CAPS day on the MAGA front:

Record JOBS DAY!! 223K jobs added. Unemployment is 3.8%, lowest in 50 yrs. Black and Asian unemployment hit historic new lows. Adult men and women, and teenagers, are at lowest since 2000. Hourly earnings are up! Tax CUTS are working. America is WINNING BIG under President Trump!

To be sure, the Donald is an economic ignoramus—-so we are not surprised he has taken to citing the junk jobs numbers from the BLS. After all, that puts him in the same company as the Keynesian wizards at the Fed, who also claim that 3.8% on the U-3 unemployment rate proves they have produced an Awesome Economy by virtue of nine years of assiduous money pumping.

The truth is, whatever life there is left in the current aging business recovery (now the second longest in history at 108 months) is the work of American capitalism’s millions of entrepreneurs, investors and businesses and tens of million or workers and savers—-and it is happening despite the ruinous efforts of 12 officials on the FOMC and one boastful and bombastic accident domiciled in the Oval Office.

During his 500 days, in fact, the Donald has done absolutely nothing to accelerate the modest business cycle momentum that he inherited, and much to throw fiscal time bombs in its path during the months ahead. But before marshaling the facts pertaining to the no credit/no acceleration point, we feel compelled to express at least a small bit of chagrin about Trump’s blatant backsliding on the matter of the BLS jobs numbers.

That’s because as a candidate he had seen fit not only to dump all over the BLS prints, but to actually cite our “available hours” based estimate that the true unemployment rate was 42%.

That was back in the bad old days of the Barrack Obama Economy and the early days of Trump’s improbable candidacy in September 2015. Thus, spoke (cogently) the Donald:



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