It’s The Business Cycle, Stupid!

It’s hard to think of anything dumber than for a new Administration to claim credit for the last spasms of an old business cycle. But the Donald has done it in spades, thereby setting himself up for a great big fall when the US economy soon makes its appointed rendezvous with the next recession.

Predictably, Trump didn’t wait long after this morning’s jobs report to crow about the 43 year low in the head line unemployment rate:

 Just out: 3.7% Unemployment is the lowest number since 1969!

Of course, candidate Trump claimed to know better than to fall for the BLS’ seasonally maladjusted, heavily imputed, birth and death guestimated and trend-cycle adjusted statistical noise. He once even cited our 40% estimate for the true hours-based, comprehensive unemployment rate of the adult population.



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