Fake Boom, Fake Recovery, Real Bubble

Fake GDP breakouts come with the territory—–and the 4.1% reported for Q2 this morning is no exception. Perversely, it amounts to a “thanks, but no thanks, Donald” because much of it reflected one time gains in exports and personal consumption.

To wit, 1.1% of the gain was due to a surge in exports—mainly soybeans which soared by 200% during the quarter to beat China’s 28% retaliatory tariff that became effective July 8. So anticipatory buying by Chinese speculators and pig farmers are what actually put the “4” in this quarter’s GDP report.


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