Historical Archives

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that sales of existing homes, or resales, declined sharply in December 2017. Falling 3.6% from November (revised lower), that merely suggests what other data has been pointing toward. The hurricanes that hit the South caused distortions in economic conditions, bunching up activity into especially October and November. The […]

Roughly 1 year ago we explained why the “fate of the world economy is in the hands of China’s housing bubble.” The answer was simple: for the Chinese population, and growing middle class, to keep spending vibrant and borrowing elevated, it had to feel comfortable and confident that its wealth would keep rising. However, unlike

China’s banking regulator chief warned that a “black swan,” or an unforeseen event could threaten the country’s financial stability, official People’s Daily reported on Wednesday….Guo said the dangers stem from the pressure of rising bad debt, imperfect internal risk systems at financial institutions, the relatively high levels of shadow banking activities and rule violations. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/16/black-swan-event-could-threaten-chinas-financial-stability-warns-banking-regulator-chief.html

……. in his latest letter to clients from last week, the prominent SocGen strategist proposes that not deflation, but rather a unexpected episode of monetary tightening will be the catalyst that will trigger the next “Great Unwind”, bringing the record-setting global stock market to a screeching halt. What is even more interesting is the country that